This will probably be the last weekly market update for the year as I will be taking the next couple of weeks off. I wish everyone a very happy Holiday and look forward to the New Year.
As for the markets, the market structure high formed on the ES last week. This was what I was pointing to last week where I felt, if it formed and triggered, we would get a correction with some follow through back down to the ES 2000 level. That correction was completed on Friday.
So, where do we go from here? Well, I would normally expect we put a bottom in this week and begin that Holiday rally and rally into options expiration week. The fly in that ointment may be this weeks Fed meeting on interest rates. Any new clues on the direction of interest rates next year will certainly be a potential market mover one way or the other so watch for it on Wed.
Last week, I said that I expected the US dollar was due for a pullback albeit a shallow one. We began that last week. This allowed the metals to rally a bit as both gold and silver had previously completed their 5 wave patterns to the downside and were due to correct back up. The dollar will need to continue to pull back in order for the metals to continue their rally.
Finally, oil hit our $60 DP target last week. At this point, I wouldn’t look to be a seller. This is an area where I anticipate we may get some buyers to step in.
For the rest of the analysis, check out tonight’s MTPredictor Weekly Market Update.
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The Dow has continued its march toward the big round number target of 18,000. It is now only a couple of up days away from this milestone. With the end of the year in sight and an options expiration coming up in a couple of weeks, I think we have a good shot of getting there before the Holidays.
The US dollar continued its strength last week while the rallies in oil and the metals was short lived. There was some news that Putin and Russia have begun to sell dollars. We’ll see if this gets reflected in the price at some point. Keep an eye on the dollar because it will continue to have a big impact the higher it goes.
Check out the rest of the analysis in tonight’s MTPredictor Market Update featuring the MTPredictor Elliott wave and Fibonacci trading software for stocks, commodities, futures and forex.
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As I anticipated, the Swiss gold referendum did not pass. I expect this to put more sell side pressure on gold in the coming weeks, especially if the US dollar continues higher. The dollar is due for a pullback but at this point, sellers are hard to find.
Stocks like to rally into the holidays so I am not looking for anything significant at this point unless a market structure high forms.
The multi-year range in oil has broken down. Oil closed below a significant support level. If last weeks low gets taken out, it should be a sign that prices are heading down to the $60 level. A rally back to the $77-78 level will probably bring in more selling at this point.
Check out the rest of the analysis in tonight’s MTPredictor Weekly Market Update